Ask John: What Will be the Next Big Thing in America?

Question:
First came The Guyver, then Evangelion, 26 mega hit episodes which got everyone’s attention. Then Escaflowne, another mega hit series. From there comes Cowboy Bebop, Outlaw Star, Gasaraki, and etc. So my question is, what’s the next big thing coming to the U.S.? What’s the next series that will definitely catch viewers’ attention?

Answer:
Before I answer the question, I’d like to address the question. Certainly Evangelion, Escaflowne, Cowboy Bebop, and to a lesser degree Outlaw Star have been phenomenal hits in America, but titles including Guyver and Gasaraki may have their small cells of devoted fans but are far from being breakthrough, “must-see” major hits.

It’s virtually impossible to infallibly predict what anime series will be massive word-of-mouth hits in America. And success or failure in Japan is not always an accurate prediction of American success. The Gunnm OAVs were a commercial failure in Japan but remain a perennial favorite in America. Jubei Nin Pocho (AKA: Ninja Scroll) had a very brief life in Japan although it remains one of the few “must see” anime films among Western fans. Likewise, Trigun has achieved far more support and adoration in America than it did during its largely overlooked Japanese broadcast. On the other hand, Nadesico was a massive breakthrough success in Japan, but is largely overlooked by American fans. And even Love Hina was a massive underground cult hit among American fans before it was licensed for US release. But as soon as Bandai released Love Hina in America, interest from American fans seemed to dry up noticeably.

With this qualification in place, my predictions should be taken very lightly. If anything is predictably likely to become a massive success in America in the future, the most obvious candidate is Noir. Stylish music, attractive character designs, action patterned on Western action movies, and an intentionally non-Japanese flavor make Noir appealing to anime fans for its quality, and appealing to mainstream Americans for its accessibility and lightly foreign flavor.

The .hack//SIGN TV series has great potential for American success for largely the same reasons, plus it will have wider recognition among mainstream consumers because of its video game tie-in. The actual quality of the .hack//SIGN TV animation is arguable, but it is highly accessible to even viewers unfamiliar with anime. And its wide open, underwritten story and dialogue allow tremendous flexibility for fan speculation and involvement, which always helps word of mouth.

Full Metal Panic and RahXephon both have roughly equal potential in my estimation, although they’re both dramatically different types of shows. High production values and exciting action help Full Metal Panic considerably. The series features comedy, drama, action, tension and suspense, giant robots and cute girls. It’s simply everything people expect anime to be. RahXephon has already been frequently compared to Evangelion, for just cause. The mysterious atmosphere of the show, and its exceptionally skilled direction give it the potential to appeal to both die-hard fans seeking something intellectually stimulating, and mainstream fans seeking something esoteric and unusual.

Nekojiru-So has a great potential to be America’s sleeper breakthrough. How can someone not be interested in watching a critically acclaimed film best described as Hello Kitty’s trip to Hell? Furthermore, the word of mouth true story that the creator of Nekojiru committed suicide only increases the intrigue surrounding the anime. Nekojiru-So may be the Blare Witch Project of anime.

With the upcoming television broadcast of Inuyasha, and established strong fan support already in place, there’s very little doubt that Inuyasha will be the next mainstream breakthrough on the scale of Cowboy Bebop or Outlaw Star or Big O or Gundam Wing.

Chobits, I think, has the best chance of becoming the next major hit in the smaller, more isolated American anime fan market. Chobits is simply too subtle and reserved to capture the attention of mainstream America, but it’s exactly these qualities that will endear the series to die-hard American fans.

And finally, my wild cards are Arjuna and Hoshi no Koe, two of the best anime productions, well, ever, in my opinion. Both Arjuna and Hoshi no Koe are “thinking mans” entertainment as both deal with philosophical and abstract concepts in the midst of absolutely stunning animation and awe inspiring action choreography. Arjuna has been heavily criticized by fans for its overt, heavy handed theme of ecological protection. However, I believe that if fans are willing to set aside their renitence, they’ll find a masterpiece unlike anything else in Arjuna. The stunning animation of Hoshi no Koe: Voice of a Distant Star virtually overwhelms the film’s subtle and touching romantic story. Hoshi no Koe is simply one of the most heartfelt, honest and brilliant works of anime I’ve ever seen. I believe that every second of the film clearly expresses itself as a carefully crafted and deeply personal work of art. However, the short film may be too sentimental or too abstract or simply too good for many fans to actually appreciate its accomplishment.

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