Ask John: What Will be the Next Big American Hit?

Question:
It’s obvious that anime is slowing down in America, but with the upcoming titles, which do you think is more likely to succeed? Funimation has Basilisk, Trinity Blood, and Speed Grapher; Geneon has Ergo Proxy and Gun X Sword; Bandai has Eureka 7. Which one of these titles is getting the most interest from American fans, and which one is actually worth the hype?

Answer:
I haven’t watched to completion any of the shows you’ve inquired about, but I have sampled all of them, and I believe that I’m familiar enough with all of them to make predictions about them. Basilisk, Trinity Blood, and Speed Grapher are all Gonzo productions targeted at mature, hardcore anime fans. Gonzo has a well established positive reputation within the fan community, and Gonzo produced shows are usually quite popular in America. Ergo Proxy is a slick cyberpunk show produced by ManGlobe, a company that’s already achieved popular success with Samurai Champloo. Eureka 7 is a Studio Bones production. Bones has previously achieved great success with titles including Wolf’s Rain and Fullmetal Alchemist. GUNxSWORD is a seeming hybrid of giant robots, Trigun, and Cowboy Bebop produced by AIC/ASTA, a studio which hasn’t been tremendously successful in producing popular hits.

Judging by fan reaction, Ergo Proxy and GUNxSWORD seem to be the least favored of the lot among American anime fans. GUNxSWORD was criticized by American fans for not having a clear and unique individuality. Seemingly in its effort to combine characteristics of Trigun and Cowboy Bebop, then include giant robots into the mix, the show failed to excel in any particular characteristic, leaving it bland and lifeless. The show wasn’t very popular in America’s underground fan community, and when fans aren’t interested in watching it even when they can get it for free, I don’t expect it to become a major commercial success in America. At this point in time, Ergo Proxy is still brand new, so the fan reaction to it may be still developing. However, a month after its Japanese debut, there seems to be minimal interest in it among America’s hardcore anime fans. The show may have been overshadowed by other programs that debuted just before it. It’s also possible that the attractive looking but chaotic and disjointed first episode failed to capture the interest of American viewers. But given the pedigree of the show and its undeniable visual impact, Ergo Proxy may develop into a sleeper American hit in the future.

Basilisk, Trinity Blood, and Speed Grapher were all moderately popular in America’s fan community, although some of the buzz about them got squashed when FUNimation demanded that online distribution of the shows cease. Out of sight, out of mind. When the availability of these shows in the fan community decreased, discussion and anticipation for them also decreased. Ninja Scroll is a perpetual American favorite, and Basilisk easily steps into the path made by Ninja Scroll. So I expect Basilisk to be successful, especially with mainstream American male consumers, upon its official American release. Trinity Blood is another Gonzo production in the vein of Peacemaker Kurogane. It’s a show that tries to appeal to both male and female viewers, and as a result isn’t entirely convincing on either front. Trinity Blood has been popular in America’s fan community, but it’s not been the cult hit that I and many observers expected that it could have been had it not compromised itself by mixing gothic horror with comedy. Like Peacemaker Kurogane, I anticipate that Trinity Blood will be moderately successful in America, but it probably won’t become a break-out smash hit like Hellsing or Vampire Hunter D. Finally, Speed Grapher suffers from drastic lapses in production quality, and many American fans have criticized it for emphasizing superficial shock value over plot and character development. The show’s misogynistic attitude and overt sexuality may be distasteful to American female viewers, so I envision it becoming successful, but it’s potential is limited. Speed Grapher isn’t a mainstream anime and will never achieve breakthrough mainstream success.

Eureka 7, on the other hand, is a relatively mainstream anime, and it probably has the most potential for mainstream appeal of all of the aforementioned shows. Eureka 7 shares Fullmetal Alchemist’s characteristic combination of bright and vivid visual design, strong character development, appeal to both male and female viewers, and a deft combination of humor with serious drama. Fullmetal Alchemist has become a smashing success in America with the help of support from America’s fan community, a strong marketing campaign, and broadcast on the Cartoon Network. Eureka 7 will likely benefit from all of those same things. Among all of the shows in question, Eureka 7 is the one that has the most characteristics for potential mainstream American success. It’s the only one of the programs compared that’s tentatively scheduled for broadcast on American TV. It’s the only program among those compared that has an obvious potential to appeal to male and female hardcore and casual anime viewers.

No one will know for certain how well particular shows will perform in American release, nor how the success of certain shows will compare to other shows. But Basilisk, Trinity Blood, Speed Grapher, Ergo Proxy, GUNxSWORD, and Eureka 7 are all shows targeted directly at the core anime fan consumer, so I expect that the success of each of them will be relatively similar and assured. GUNxSWORD is probably the weakest of the six titles. I can’t clearly define a singular “best” among the remaining five, but Eureka 7 will have the biggest American exposure by a wide margin, which will virtually guarantee its success above all of the others.

Article revised March 20, 2006.