Ask John: How Long Will Anime Last?

Question:
How long do you think anime will last? If there is still anime in the future, do you think it would be as strong as certain titles such as “Dragon Ball Z,” “Tenchi Muyo,” “Macross,” and all of the other great anime of today?

Answer:
To be honest, over the years I’ve heard many people at different times predict the imminent demise of the anime industry predicated on events including the 1993 arrest of Kadokawa Publishing president Haruki Kadokawa on drug smuggling charges, the 1998 end of Japan’s “economic bubble,” and the 2001 Asian economic crisis. Yet through it all the total amount of anime produced and released in Japan has steadily increased non-stop since its birth in the late 1950s. Comic art and visual storytelling has been a part of Japanese culture for centuries, evolving from woodblock prints, ukiyo-e and shunga in ancient Japan to editorial and political cartoons during the 19th century, to the birth and expansion of manga, which now accounts for nearly half of all printed material in Japan. Anime is simply a natural extension and sub-branch of ancient and traditional Japanese visual art. If anime, as we know if today, has survived already for a half century, there’s little reason for me to believe that it will become extinct any time in the foreseeable future. Especially with childrens’ programs like Pokemon, Digimon, Dragon Drive, Crayon Shin-chan, Tokyo Mew Mew and Ojamajo Doremi bringing in hundreds of thousands of viewers, new generations of Japanese viewers are developing into devoted fans all the time. There should be little doubt that a percentage of these young viewers will grow up and retain their interest in animation, ensuring its continued development and existence.

There is an amorphous, ambiguous fear in the fan community that the use of computer animation and digital animation will eventually supercede anime as we know it today, but I find this unlikely. Any fan of anime knows, subconsciously if not perceptively, a significant part of the appeal of anime is its look. The visual appeal of bright colors, large and expressive eyes, and art that shows the creativity of individual artists laboring over paper and canvas is attractive and will always resonate within viewers. While the look of anime, and the means of production of anime may evolve somewhat with time, the fundamental design and appeal of anime will not change. In simple terms, I wholeheartedly believe that anime is not a passing fad but a “new” form of contemporary art with perpetual lasting potential.

There has also been speculation over the future of anime in America. Since the late 1970s and early 1980s there have been organizations such as the CFO and publications such as The Rose and Animag, and an “underground” cult of devoted anime fans in America. This hardcore fandom existed before anime began to make it big in America, and will exist as long as anime itself exists, regardless of the success or failure of anime in America. But I do not foresee anime being a “failure” in America. Certainly America has had its share of failed attempts at importing foreign culture, but unlike many previous brief phases, anime already has a 30 year history in America. The theoretical goal of dubbed anime is to introduce English speaking viewers to Japanese animation- to essentially wean them into an appreciation of an imported, foreign language art form. For better or worse, over time English dubbed anime has evolved from a means to an end to an end product in and of itself. This suggests that anime has actually been adopted into mainstream American culture, albeit in a presently still minimal state. I believe that anime has found a permanent place in American popular culture. While no one can say whether or not its prominence in American cultural awareness will significantly increase or decrease in the coming years, I see no reason to believe that it will disappear from American shores altogether.

We refer to Japanese animation overtly because it originates in Japan. However, in a figurative sense, Japanese serves to designate the animation as different, unusual and unlike what we are used to. In this sense, the adjective “Japanese” in the name “Japanese animation” could be replaced by “Import” or “Esoteric” or even a totally original word like “Grgffeh animation,” and the meaning would be the same. Viewers in both Japan and across the world enjoy anime because it is totally unlike any other cinematic medium the world has ever known. Unlike live action film that is always grounded in reality because of its use of real human actors, anime has the ability to be absolutely universal and absolutely fictional. And while the ability to create animation with contemporary, mature human sensibilities and sentiment is not limited to Japan, Japan is the only country in the world that happens to consistently and furiously produce such animation. Therefore, since anime has such a unique ability to transcend literary and cinematic cultural and language boundaries, I believe that as long as humans exist with our desire to be entertained by visual stories, anime will exist and will have a place in America.

In regard to specific anime titles, titles including Macross and Tenchi Muyo represent a period of 10 years between their debuts. And as of this writing, Tenchi Muyo is now 10 years old. Anime titles like Astroboy and Speed Racer are as entertaining and viable and popular now as they were 30 years ago, at least to a viewer willing to concede the cultural and artistic progression of time between these series’ creation and now. And there have been countless number of highly popular and entertaining anime series created in the decade since Tenchi Muyo premiered. With this precedence to rely on, there can be little doubt that there will be equally tremendous anime series released to the world in the years to come.